{"id":11899,"date":"2025-04-11T13:00:49","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T13:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/11\/ecuador-will-choose-its-next-president-on-sunday-amid-surging-violence-and-crime\/"},"modified":"2025-04-11T13:00:49","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T13:00:49","slug":"ecuador-will-choose-its-next-president-on-sunday-amid-surging-violence-and-crime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/11\/ecuador-will-choose-its-next-president-on-sunday-amid-surging-violence-and-crime\/","title":{"rendered":"Ecuador will choose its next president on Sunday amid surging violence and crime"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ecuadorians will head to the polls on Sunday in a runoff presidential election, choosing between a conservative incumbent or a leftist lawyer as the country struggles with a cocaine-fueled security crisis. <\/p>\n

President Daniel Noboa is vying for a full four years in office after winning a special election in 2023 to complete his predecessor\u2019s term. He will be running against Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez, the prot\u00e9g\u00e9 of Ecuador\u2019s left-wing former President Rafael Correa. <\/p>\n

The first round of voting in February ended with a near tie between both candidates.\u202fWhoever wins Sunday\u2019s vote will have to steward a country suffering under surging violence and organized crime. <\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what you should know: <\/p>\n

An unending crimewave<\/h2>\n

Once an island of peace in an otherwise turbulent region, the surging drug trade in recent years has caused Ecuador to have the highest homicide rate in Latin America in 2023, according to InSight Crime. <\/p>\n

The rate dropped slightly in 2024, but the violence continues as criminal groups have adapted and fragmented in the wake of a government crackdown. <\/p>\n

Noboa has sought to quell the problem with force, adopting a \u201cmano dura,\u201d or firm-handed, approach to fighting crime. <\/p>\n

Soon after Noboa took office in 2023, the country suffered back-to-back emergencies: a notorious gang leader escaped from prison; days later, a band of gunmen stormed a major TV station and took the staff hostage. <\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
\n
People run from the premises of Ecuador\u2019s TC television channel after gunmen burst into the studio live on air on January 9, 2024, in Guayaquil.<\/span> <\/div>\n

AFP via Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

To stamp out the crime wave, Noboa has openly solicited the help of foreign governments and companies, especially from the United States. In March, Noboa raised eyebrows when he announced a \u201cstrategic alliance\u201d to fight organized crime with Erik Prince, the founder of the controversial private defense contractor formerly known as Blackwater. <\/p>\n

The presence of the US in Ecuador is a point of contention between Noboa and Gonz\u00e1lez, who opposes foreign intervention in the country\u2019s security issues. <\/p>\n

Along with the crime wave, Ecuadoreans are struggling with a battered economy. Isabel Chiriboga, a Latin America expert at the non-partisan think tank Atlantic Council, wrote in February that the next president will have to steward an economy \u201cteetering on the brink of collapse.\u201d <\/p>\n

A hardline approach to crime<\/h2>\n

Noboa, the American-born, Harvard-educated son of one of Ecuador\u2019s richest businessmen, became president after a surprise victory in 2023, where he beat Gonz\u00e1lez in the second round. <\/p>\n

Throughout his first term, critics say Noboa has violated political norms, shocking Latin America when he ordered security forces to storm the Mexican embassy to arrest Jorge Glas, a former vice president under Correa accused of corruption. The breach of diplomatic protocol led Mexico to break off relations with Ecuador. <\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
\n
Police break into the Mexican embassy in Quito, Ecuador, on April 5, 2024.<\/span> <\/div>\n

David Bustillos\/AP<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
\n
Ecuadorian soldiers stand guard over inmates at Litoral Penitentiary on February 9, 2024.<\/span> <\/div>\n

John Moore\/Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cNoboa thinks that he can govern like he managed his companies,\u201d said Jean Paul Pinto, an Ecuadorean political analyst based in Quito. \u201cHe thinks that in the same way that he gives orders inside his companies, he can do the same with the state. And that\u2019s not true.\u201d <\/p>\n

Noboa has strained against the legal limits of his office, initiating and winning a referendum to expand his security powers in April 2024. A key part of his security strategy was deploying the military to Ecuador\u2019s prisons, which criminal groups in the country have controlled for years with virtual impunity. <\/p>\n

Critics say the president\u2019s approach is brutal, with little to show for it. \u201cWe have seen no sign that (Noboa) has a long-term plan,\u201d said James Bargent, a journalist at InSight Crime who has studied Ecuador\u2019s prison crisis. <\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we\u2019ve seen over the last year is just using force on its own is not effective. It\u2019s not broken this cycle of violence,\u201d Bargent concluded. <\/p>\n

As to the economy, Noboa has leaned heavily into economic proposals like cash payments and debt forgiveness for farmers affected by natural disasters. <\/p>\n

\u201cNow you\u2019re seeing (Noboa) really engaged in some tactics usually more associated with the populist left,\u201d said Will Freeman, a Latin America fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. \u201cIt\u2019s classic economic populism.\u201d <\/p>\n

A former president\u2019s prot\u00e9g\u00e9<\/h2>\n

Gonz\u00e1lez has grounded her campaign to \u201cRevitalize Ecuador,\u201d centering a return to the high social spending of Correa\u2019s presidency. <\/p>\n

Under Gonz\u00e1lez, \u201cwe\u2019ll have more social policies for the poorest people in Ecuador,\u201d predicted Pinto. \u201cIn the time of Correa, we had a strong state, with a lot of ministers.\u201d <\/p>\n

A charismatic socialist now in exile in Belgium, Correa remains a popular figure in Ecuador\u2019s politics despite allegations of corruption during his presidency. In 2020, an Ecuadorean court sentenced the former president to eight years in prison for bribery in absentia, a charge he has repeatedly denied. <\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m the president of my party,\u201d Gonz\u00e1lez said, \u201cI\u2019m the one leading my campaign \u2013 it\u2019s my government plan, and my plans for the public. So who will rule? It\u2019ll be Luisa (Gonz\u00e1lez).\u201d <\/p>\n

The country has seen several nationwide power cuts linked to the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon drying up rivers that fuel its hydroelectric power plants. In response, Gonz\u00e1lez has called for greater government intervention in Ecuador\u2019s power grid. <\/p>\n

As for the country\u2019s biggest political issue, a Gonz\u00e1lez government may take a more diplomatic approach to dealing with the gangs, Pinto said. \u201cLuisa is going to make a preventative effort,\u201d Pinto said. \u201cI think that she\u2019s going to negotiate with criminal groups to obtain a more peaceful country.\u201d <\/p>\n

Gonz\u00e1lez has publicly denied that she would negotiate with criminals. Her party\u2019s plan states her government would strive to create a \u201cnew model\u201d of security based on \u201cprevention, violence reduction and coexistence.\u201d <\/p>\n

The leftist politician is completely against bringing in muscle from abroad to tackle Ecuador\u2019s crime crisis, and has proposed reestablishing the Ecuadorean Ministry of Justice,\u202fwhich was dismantled\u202fin 2018. She\u2019s also set on eliminating the agency\u202fthat manages the country\u2019s dysfunctional prisons. <\/p>\n

Freeman, however, thinks that Gonz\u00e1lez may be just as hardline as Noboa, pointing to her mentor\u2019s tenure in office. <\/p>\n

\u201cCorrea was almost a proto-Bukele,\u201d Freeman pointed out, referring to the authoritarian president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. \u201cHe (Correa) doubled the prison population. He built massive, massive prisons around the country and filled them with petty criminals. I think that it could be pretty mano dura<\/em> under Gonz\u00e1lez as well, even if she\u2019s not saying that.\u201d <\/p>\n

A possible fight ahead<\/h2>\n

After the election moved to a runoff in February, both candidates claimed, without evidence, that the vote was possibly fraudulent. Freeman and Pinto both worry that without a significant-enough margin of victory, there\u2019s a possibility that neither candidate will concede. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf Luisa loses on Sunday, there are going to be a lot of strikes,\u201d Pinto said. \u201cEspecially in the coastal cities\u201d where Gonz\u00e1lez\u2019s supporters are concentrated. <\/p>\n

\u201cNoboa has said, \u2018I will only concede if there are no signs of fraud,\u2019\u201d said Freeman. \u201cHe did even say during the first round that he thought there was fraud. It sort of feels like he\u2019s rhetorically preparing the ground not to concede in the case of a very close outcome.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ecuadorians will head to the polls on Sunday in a runoff presidential election, choosing between a conservative incumbent or a leftist lawyer as the country struggles with a cocaine-fueled security crisis. President Daniel Noboa is vying for a full four years in office after winning a special election in 2023 to complete his predecessor\u2019s term. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":11900,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11899","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11899"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11899\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11900"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11899"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11899"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11899"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}