After Israel\u2019s attack on Iran Saturday, US officials were quick to caution both countries against perpetuating the cycle of violence, but analysts say lasting de-escalation is not a foregone conclusion. <\/p>\n
The airstrikes \u201cshould be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran,\u201d a senior US administration official said after the attacks. <\/p>\n
After reports emerged of explosions heard in Tehran, Israel in a statement said it launched what it described as \u201cprecise strikes on military targets in Iran\u201d early Saturday.\u00a0The strikes were in response to Iran\u2019s barrage of missiles fired at Israel on October 1, in retaliation to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and others. <\/p>\n
Iran said Israel \u201cattacked parts of military centers\u201d on Saturday in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam, causing \u201climited damage\u201d in some areas. <\/p>\n
Iran appeared to have downplayed the Israeli strike,\u00a0Iranian experts said. State media broadcast images showing calm on the streets of Tehran, with traffic moving and people going about their daily business. <\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s foreign ministry condemned the attack, calling it \u201cclear violation\u201d of international law. The ministry added that Iran \u201cconsiders itself entitled and obligated to defend itself\u201d after the Israeli strikes. <\/p>\n
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC, said Iran\u2019s downplayed response may be \u201cmore reflective of their desire to de-escalate than a true assessment of the damage Israel inflicted on Iran,\u201d like Israel\u2019s attempts to hide damage caused by Iran\u2019s October 1 attack. <\/p>\n
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense for Democracies, also based in DC, said Iran\u2019s downplayed response may be \u201ca strategic move to save face and keep US constraint on Israel.\u201d <\/p>\n
After several hours of strikes Saturday, the Israeli military said it had targeted manufacturing sites used to produce missiles that Iran has fired at Israel over the past year. Israel also said it hit Iranian aerial defense systems early Saturday to allow its aircraft to attack the other targets. <\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s decision to strike early Saturday morning came after weeks of deliberations within its security cabinet about the nature and scope of such an attack, Israeli officials said. <\/p>\n
American officials have been keen to show the extent to which Israel\u2019s attack was retrained and precise, especially as the US pushed Israel not to attack Iran\u2019s energy infrastructure, for fear of igniting a broader conflict, a request Israel seems to have heeded, according to preliminary reports. <\/p>\n
After Israel\u2019s retaliatory strikes against Iran ended, National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said the White House urges \u201cIran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation.\u201d <\/p>\n
But Israel has not always met the demands of its American ally. Throughout the war, Israel has defied the US\u2019 calls for restraint \u2013 on the Rafah operation in southern Gaza, and more recently on a ground war in southern Lebanon. <\/p>\n
Disagreements between the two governments culminated in an October 13 letter from the US to Israel, demanding the Jewish state act to improve the\u00a0humanitarian situation in Gaza\u00a0within the next 30 days or risk\u00a0violating\u00a0US laws governing foreign military assistance,\u00a0suggesting US military aid could be in jeopardy. <\/p>\n
Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow with the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a retired Israel Defense Intelligence officer who specialized in Iran, said it was too early to predict how the coming hours and days will unfold. \u201cBut one thing is clear,\u201d he said, \u201cIsrael and Iran came closer than ever last night to the brink of direct war.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cThe ball is now in the Iranian leadership\u2019s court,\u201d Citrinowicz said on X, adding that the Iranian regime likely faces a familiar dilemma: to strike back for reputational gains, or take Israel\u2019s attack as an end to the direct conflict. <\/p>\n
Parsi of the Quincy Institute said that \u201cif Iran chooses to exercise restraint\u2026 then this chapter may be closed, yet the conflict will remain very much alive.\u201d <\/p>\n
When Iran chose restraint after Israel\u2019s retaliation in April, it emboldened the Jewish state to take out key Hezbollah leaders in Beirut, which triggered the next cycle of aggression. <\/p>\n
Experts say that while Israel presses on with its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, any pause in direct fighting between Iran and Israel is likely to be short-lived. <\/p>\n
As long as those regional wars persist, the overall trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict will escalate. \u201cWhile we may see some tactical de-escalation, the trajectory remains escalatory,\u201d Parsi said, adding \u201ca new exchange of fire between Israel and Iran will only be a question of time,\u201d with the next round likely to be \u201cmore ferocious.\u201d <\/p>\n
Israel has long tried to push Iran and other Iranian proxies back into deterrence. \u00a0But experts say Israel\u2019s strategy may not be entirely effective. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt doesn\u2019t de-escalate through escalation,\u201d he said, \u201cwhich is the most incredible thing I\u2019ve heard.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
After Israel\u2019s attack on Iran Saturday, US officials were quick to caution both countries against perpetuating the cycle of violence, but analysts say lasting de-escalation is not a foregone conclusion. The airstrikes \u201cshould be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran,\u201d a senior US administration official said after the attacks. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":4124,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4123\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4124"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}