One month ago, Israelis and Palestinians felt that rarest of things: optimism. <\/p>\n
After months of stalled talks, there was finally a ceasefire in Gaza. There seemed to be a real path towards the end of the war. <\/p>\n
But the situation has changed drastically since then. <\/p>\n
The 42-day truce between Israel and Hamas is set to expire this weekend unless an agreement is struck to extend it. The two sides were meant to begin talks on a permanent end to the war in early February; three weeks later, they still haven\u2019t started. <\/p>\n
Since the deal was struck, there\u2019s been a vibe shift in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is buoyed by the return of US President Donald Trump and under pressure from far-right members of his own cabinet to return to war. The Gaza ceasefire looks increasingly like it may end up being a fleeting interlude. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe are ready to return to intense combat at any moment,\u201d Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told graduating military officers on Sunday. \u201cThe operational plans are ready.\u201d <\/p>\n
Netanyahu made his tenuous commitment to the ceasefire clear when he traveled to Washington DC to meet Trump earlier this month and opted not to send a negotiating team to Qatar or Egypt, which mediated the ceasefire. <\/p>\n
He has replaced Israel\u2019s security chiefs, who previously led ceasefire negotiations, with a close political ally \u2013 his minister of strategic affairs, Ron Dermer, who is said to be close to the Trump Administration. Israeli media last week was briefed by a \u201csenior official\u201d castigating the security chief-led negotiating team for giving Hamas too much in previous talks. <\/p>\n
Even during the initial ceasefire negotiations it was clear that Netanyahu was skeptical of its potential second phase. <\/p>\n
The first phase was always temporary for him. It was a way to get some hostages home without permanently ending the war or having to talk about what Gaza will look like once it\u2019s over. Nearly 17 months since October 7, he has yet to present his vision for Gaza\u2019s future, except to say that neither Hamas nor the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority should govern. <\/p>\n
The second phase was always going to be trickier. It would see Hamas and Israel agree to a permanent end to hostilities, the release of all living Israeli hostages held in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, including from the Gaza-Egypt border. <\/p>\n
Netanyahu is under tremendous pressure to return to war. His finance minister, the far-right-winger Bezalel Smotrich, has threatened to withdraw from the governing coalition if Israel doesn\u2019t restart the war after this weekend. Itamar Ben Gvir quit his post as national security minister over the ceasefire. <\/p>\n
It is unclear whether Hamas, for whom the hostages are their most valuable asset, would continue releasing Israelis without an Israeli commitment to end the war. <\/p>\n
Though Trump championed and took credit for the ceasefire, his messaging since taking office has hardly been that of a peacemaker. He\u2019s proposed expelling Palestinians from Gaza, he\u2019s considering some Israelis\u2019 desire to annex the West Bank, and he\u2019s expressed doubt about the fate of the ceasefire. \u201cI can\u2019t tell you whether or not the cease fire will hold,\u201d he said earlier this month. \u201cWe are going to see whether or not it holds.\u201d <\/p>\n
Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, is returning to the region this week to try to save the ceasefire. He hardly expressed optimism when he spoke with the president\u2019s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, at a Saudi investment conference in Miami last week. \u201cPhase two is more difficult,\u201d Witkoff said. \u201cBut I think ultimately if we work hard that there\u2019s a real chance of success.\u201d <\/p>\n
Hours after Hamas released six Israeli hostages this weekend, Israel\u2019s cabinet said it wasn\u2019t going to uphold its end of the exchange \u2013 the release of 620 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. <\/p>\n
The Israeli government and many international observers have expressed horror at the Hamas\u2019 propaganda ceremonies staged to hand hostages to the Red Cross. It appears two incidents last week \u2013 the initial failure to hand over Shiri Bibas\u2019 body and the staging of dead Israelis\u2019 coffins under the banner of a bloodsucking Netanyahu \u2013 were a step too far. Hamas would have to stop \u201cthe humiliating ceremonies,\u201d the prime minister\u2019s office said. <\/p>\n
Hamas spokesperson Abdul Latif Al-Qanou called Israel\u2019s decision not to release the prisoners a \u201cblatant violation\u201d of the ceasefire agreement. <\/p>\n
Critics of the Israeli government point out that Israel, too, has staged propaganda campaigns. Palestinian detainees released by Israel \u2013 some of whom have committed serious crimes, but most of whom were held without charge \u2013 have been made to wear sweatshirts upon their release with a Star of David and the Arabic phrase: \u201cWe don\u2019t forget or forgive.\u201d Others have said that they were made to watch hours of Israeli propaganda videos ahead of their release. <\/p>\n
The future of the ceasefire now seems to come down to a simple calculation. Will Hamas see enough value in a short-lived peace to continue releasing hostages without long-term commitments from Israel? And if not, will the American government pressure Israel into the concessions necessary for a second phase? <\/p>\n
Two million Palestinians struggling to survive depend on the answer. So too do the 63 hostages who remain in Gaza \u2013 just under half of whom are thought to be alive. <\/p>\n
\u201cPlease, I just want to go home,\u201d Evyatar David, who was kidnapped from the Nova music festival, said Saturday in a Hamas propaganda video as he watched hostages handed to the Red Cross. Though he was likely speaking under duress, David\u2019s family authorized the video\u2019s release. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe time has come to end it,\u201d he said. \u201cYou started something, finish it. Please.\u201d <\/p>\n
Eugenia Yosef and Kevin Liptak contributed to this report. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
One month ago, Israelis and Palestinians felt that rarest of things: optimism. After months of stalled talks, there was finally a ceasefire in Gaza. There seemed to be a real path towards the end of the war. But the situation has changed drastically since then. The 42-day truce between Israel and Hamas is set to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":9803,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9802"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9802\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9803"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investingsstrategist.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}